|SOS||- USA Stock|
USD 2.83 0.12 4.43%
SOS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SOS historical stock prices and determine the direction of SOS Limiteds future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SOS historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SOS to cross-verify your projections.
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Most investors in SOS cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SOSs time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SOSs price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for SOS is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SOS Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
SOS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SOS Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.026988, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.86. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SOS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SOSs next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SOS Stock Forecast Pattern
|Backtest SOS||SOS Price Prediction||Buy or Sell Advice|
SOS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SOSs Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SOSs downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0283 and 8.15, respectively. We have considered SOSs daily market price to evaluate the above models predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
1st of September 2021
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting methods relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SOS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SOS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
|AIC||Akaike Information Criteria||114.4981|
|Bias||Arithmetic mean of the errors||None|
|MAD||Mean absolute deviation||0.1288|
|MAPE||Mean absolute percentage error||0.0439|
|SAE||Sum of the absolute errors||7.8554|
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SOS Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that youll want to use this model directly to predict SOS. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.
Predictive Modules for SOS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SOS Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of SOSs price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of SOS in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SOS. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SOSs peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SOSs competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in SOS Limited.
Other Forecasting Options for SOS
For every potential investor in SOS, whether a beginner or expert, SOSs price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SOS Stock price charts are filled with many noises. These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SOS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SOSs price trends.
View Currently Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SOS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SOS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SOS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
SOS Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SOSs price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SOSs current price.
SOS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SOS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SOS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SOS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SOS Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SOS Risk Indicators
The analysis of SOSs basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SOSs investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting SOS stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Be your own money manager
Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in SOS without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SOS to cross-verify your projections. Note that the SOS Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SOSs statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for SOS Stock analysis
When running SOS Limited price analysis, check to measure SOSs market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SOS is operating at the current time. Most of SOSs value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SOSs future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SOSs price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SOS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of SOS Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SOS that is recorded on the companys balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SOSs value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SOSs true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SOSs market value can be influenced by many factors that dont directly affect SOS Limited underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SOSs value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine SOS value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SOSs price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
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